Russia Surprise Attack - Red Line Officially Drawn: Here Are Some “Signals”
By Nich Flue
The “Red Line is officially drawn by Russia and China. It is the use of long-range missiles by Ukraine. This article outlines this issue and Russia’s overall military strategy in the Ukraine and against NATO. Please pray to the BVM because it appears World War III is about to ignite.
RUSSIA’S FINANCIAL PLANS FOR WAR
The Russian government has announced its proposed budget for 2024. For the first time in modern history, the country is set to spend six-percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on the military, and defense spending will exceed social spending. The war against Ukraine and the West is not only the Kremlin’s biggest priority; it is now also the main driver of Russia’s economic growth.
The record defense spending shows that the Kremlin has no intention of ending its war against Ukraine anytime soon: on the contrary. Even if the fighting becomes less intense or the conflict becomes frozen, the money will go toward replenishing Russia’s depleted military arsenals. Likewise, it has enough cash to fund an escalation such as the imposition of martial law or full mobilization.
The new budget, which is awaiting approval from the State Duma, envisages that revenue will grow by more than a third in 2024, reaching 35 trillion rubles ($349 billion). Of that, 11.5 trillion rubles is expected to come from the oil and gas sector. Planned expenditure is 36.6 trillion rubles (a 26.2 percent rise on this year). This means that the budget deficit next year, at least according to the government’s plans, should significantly decrease—from a planned 2 percent of GDP in 2023 to 0.8 percent of GDP in 2024. (source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [9/23]).
Note: Original estimates (source: Wiki) indicated over $100Bn in 2023 for the military.
In both cases, these numbers are “public”. They do not reflect what privately, the intelligence community understands is a significantly higher defense budget. Also note that Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigy stated that nuclear readiness is a priority. His words were: “We continue ahead-of-schedule delivery of weaponry and equipment by means of credits. The priorities are long-range, high-precision weapons, aircraft equipment and maintenance of engagement readiness of strategic nuclear forces. (The Guardian, March 26, 2022)
In other words, Russia is intensively upgrading its first strike capabilities in strategic and tactical nuclear weaponry and conventional military hardware, including drones and cruise missiles, and most importantly in infrastructure and associated combat weaponry and associated ammunition. Putin is extensively building commercial travel infrastructure to support rapid delivery of armor and personnel transportation to the western front from as far away as the Eastern Urals. Putin is relying on income from pipeline revenue to the West to help augment financing of the military.
Attacking the West, Russia’s military tactics will include targeting NATO’s supply depots where large quantities of equipment, ammunition (“POMUS”) and military fuel and food supplies stored in large quantities for emergency use. This implies that Russian tactical military strategies require lightning quick penetration to capture these locations to supply their own armies. It also means that follow-on troops will be involved in heavy urban and street fighting behind the front-line “crack” troops. This is one of the reasons why presently, reservists and mercenaries in the Ukraine are poorly equipped/ supplied. It is important to appreciate that the Russian Defense Budget is heavily focused on the latest and most deadly weaponry and support infrastructure for their front-line troops being held secretly in reserve — with the armies in the Ukraine only getting minimal financial support.
And the Ukraine? What is the purpose of continued war? The answer is no different than it was with Mussolini in Ethiopia or Libya and Hitler in Austria and Czechoslovakia prior to WWII. The same goes for the Soviet Union invading the Baltic States and Poland at the beginning of WWII. Russia wants a “Highway” to the West and the Ukraine is a means to that end. Despite what some so-called experts claim, Putin is not in trouble with his military leaders. The Russians are patient because Putin is waiting for the worldwide economic collapse and uncivil war not only throughout Europe but in North America as well. These uncivil wars were prophesized by a number of Catholic prophets with particular emphasis on Italy, France and England. These strategic sequential signals will deplete and weaken NATO’s ability to counter-attack or defend Western Europe. This includes the collapse of effective Command and Control of the various armies and associated armed services from different nations.
RECALL CATHOLIC PROPHECIES
Recall a fairly long-while after the end of the Soviet Union in 1991, it was reasonable to think that all such prophecies given at the time of the Cold War about war with Russia (e.g. the prediction by Mari Loli Mazón of Garabandal of a Russian attack, but also others such as the French mystic Fr. Pel’s detailed map of the invasion of France, or even earlier, various predictions of Marie-Julie Jahenny) had been warded off and no longer applied. That view now requires some revisioning.
Blessed Elena Aiello (1895-1961) was a mystic, stigmatic, victim soul, and foundress of the Minim Tertiaries of the Passion of Our Lord Jesus Christ. Her extraordinary life was also marked by prophecies that are arguably unfolding at this present hour, particularly with the outbreak of war with Russia. “If the people do not recognize in these scourges (of nature, i.e. great earthquakes, terrific hurricanes, overflowing rivers and seas) the warnings of Divine Mercy, and do not return to God with truly Christian living, another terrible war will come from the East to the West. Russia with her secret armies will battle America; will overrun Europe. The river Rhine will be overflowing with corpses and blood. Italy, also, will be harassed by a great revolution, and the Pope will suffer terribly”.
Marie-Julie Jahenny forewarns: “Warning signs will be displayed in the firmament within 24 hours before the civil war and persecution break out in Paris and Rome… Our Lady will appear again near La Salette — she will also come to Amiens, France with the Divine Infant to warn the earth, and a mystic near Tours will announce the coming bloodshot and the approaching arrival of the Great Monarch….”
L’abbe Souffrant warns that the Russians, “will want to massacre everything on their way but they will not have enough time.”
CASE IN POINT: MERC REPORTS ON “MEAT GRINDER”
Below represents a summary of an intelligence report from a Chinese “Merc” who is fighting for the Russians in the Ukraine. It is quite revealing.
This Merc (A Chinese PLA veteran) informs us of his personal account of the brutality of the war. He calls it a “meat grinder”. It is important to restate that Russia’s frontline troops have not participated in the Ukrainian War. According to Statista, Putin has conscripted over a half a million men; plus reservists, paramilitary groups and Mercs (e.g. Wagner Group, Redut, Don Brigade, etc.) to conduct the fight. The Mercs come from Asia, Africa, Latin America, Cuba, and even South America. This Merc has served for several months. Clearly, Putin is showing a willingness to involve anybody willing to fight to keep his main line troops out of the meat grinder. Meanwhile, attrition from the terrible meat grinder war becomes reality for both sides rather quickly. This also serves Putin’s strategy to delay or reduce any unpopular dissent with Russia (aside from jailing dissidents).
What is telling is that Russia presently is not providing any battlefield support in medical, food supplies, and even ammunition. Soldiers are required to live off the land, take ammo from wounded or dead soldiers, foraging for food in civilian homes and commercial properties, even locating potable water to drink.
The Merc claims that it seems like this problem was “baked” into the tactical plans of the Russian Military. In May 2023, revealing stories were reported that around half of the deaths the Russian military experienced are not caused by life-threatening wounds. Rather, they occur due to improper medical care, in many cases, a complete lack of such care. That is the opinion Artem Katullin, head of the Kalashnikov Concern’s tactical medicine training center. In addition to revealing the disturbing statistic, he claims that about a third of the amputations on Russian soldiers happen because tourniquets are being applied incorrectly. He said, “You’ better get a minor wound. Get something harder and that’s it — you’re dead. No one will help you. No one will come. No one will do anything if you can’t do it yourself.”
With the onset of urban warfare, this Merc revealed that the fatality rates on average, for a Russian soldier the moment they enter the battlefield to the moment they die is between 8 to 10 hours. In other words, the vast majority won’t make it past an offensive in urban warfare. Buildings especially basements are littered with lines of rotting corpses from both sides. One last point, don’t consider retreating or quitting. The Russian officers from the Rosgvardiya (National Security Guard — Putin’s personal army) have no hesitation to shoot the soldier — no arrest, trial, nothing but the end. The message is die in battle or die by a firing squad. This is remarkably and tragically similar to what the communist did in World War II.
The Ukrainian forces insist on fighting aggressively in the cities regardless that there is no military value. They defend these cities because it represent symbolic victories; especially the high casualty rate of the Russian army.
CROSSING THE “RED LINE” WORKS BOTH WAYS
In recent developments, Ukraine is now swarming regions of Russia all the way to Moscow with drone attacks on airports, commercial and residential buildings. Make no mistake — Russia is learning. One may anticipate that Russia will use drones and short-range cruise missiles against NATO as a key element of their urban warfare strategy to support their reserve, Mercs and paramilitary troops as their front-line troops race westward.
With the US and UK now lifting restrictions on Kyiv/ Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russian territory, Ukraine will now have ATACMS (Advanced Tactical Missile System) along with British Storm-Shadow missiles and French SCALP missiles. Clearly, this is a provocation by NATO. Yet, it will also be a lesson for both sides on how to use these very advanced weapons and what counter-measures are effective.
And note Putin’s recent retaliatory threat regarding Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles against targets in Russia. He said, “Long-range arms for Kyiv would mean NATO countries at war with Russia.” Putin insists that (1) Ukrainians are incapable of operating such U.S. weapon systems; (2) the long-range precision systems require proprietary knowledge/ intelligence from European and U.S. satellites that Ukraine does not have access to or knowledge how to communicate with; and (3) Only U.S. and European servicemen can make flight assignments for these missile systems — Ukrainians cannot do this. Putin, therefore, insists that NATO countries will be directly participating in the war.
The Merc concluded that the use of front-line Russian troops would not be efficient and effective in these urban zones. It is better that these troops be used for lightning quick, deep penetration and let the reservists, Mercs and paramilitary clean up the rear with the expectation that a loss of supplies and the demoralization of these entrench Ukrainian combatants will ultimately cause their demise/ surrender with less loss of troops by the Russians. This is not too dissimilar to what the SS troops did behind the Wehrmacht during WWII in Eastern Europe.
The big tactical weapon of both sides, but especially the Ukrainians, are drones, such as the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 which can carry up to 4 laser-guided smart munitions or a payload of 150 kilograms which is used by the Ukrainians. They are also sourcing the Kemankes mini-smart cruise missiles. Heck, the Turks are considering opening a manufacturing plant in the Ukraine. Meanwhile, according to a March 2024 report by Canadian CBC, Ukraine is ramping up production of its Thermite Dragons, FPV Orlan-10 and Zala drones while also relying on its allies to supply more drones via continued military aid packages. Ukraine wants million of drones by the end of 2024. Drones are typically delivered to the battlefield with other important weapons, e.g. anti-tank rockets and C4 explosives. Also, Ukrainians are utilizing traditional old-fashion mortars provided by the Poles that are quiet and therefore very dangerous. You don’t hear them until they explode on you. As a counter-measure, the Russians are deploying an effective modification, a metal visor or “barbecue” for their Tsar-Mangal T-72B3 tanks to survive direct hits from drones and Javelin anti-tank missiles. Note that NATO and Russia are learning how to utilize and counter evolving military technologies on the battlefield.
The Russian military presently is providing only vintaged armor equipment that was previously retired in some cases for decades. The Moscow Times reports that Russia had pulled thousands of Soviet-era military vehicles to Vagzhanovo military base buying Soviet-era weapons back from countries to arm their troops in the Ukraine. On the other hand, the Ukraine has secured billions in updated, modern military equipment from the West.
In conclusion, the Merc claims that from the Russian perspective, they are indifferent regarding the merciless meat grinder where tens of thousands —perhaps hundreds of thousands are being sacrificed (no different than World Wars I and II). He wonders that the objective may be more than the Ukraine. With little to no regard for the human toll, both sides appear to be focused on learning by experience how to integrate and best utilize modern military weaponry in preparation for a forthcoming worldwide conflict.
POSTSCRIPT
Russian leadership has issued a follow-up statement to President Vladimir Putin's Thursday brief video address warning that if the US and UK authorize Ukraine to pursue long-range strikes on Russian soil, then NATO and the Russian Federation will be in an official state of war. Additionally, the Russian Foreign Ministry responded to the U.S. seeking to deploy nuclear weapons in Japan, "We plan to launch a comprehensive military intervention if American missiles are deployed in Japan."
On Friday Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, informed the UN Security council that NATO countries would "start an open war" in allowing Western long-range missiles to target Russia.
"If such a decision is made, that means NATO countries are starting an open war against Russia," Moscow’s envoy introduced. "In that case, we will obviously be forced to make certain decisions, with all the attendant consequences for Western aggressors.”
Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun publicly announced today that "China will militarily support Russia if NATO attacks Russia."
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced that units of the Russian army have started combat patrol maneuvers with the autonomous launchers of the RS-24 Yars strategic complexes. These maneuvers are being conducted by the Teikovsky Division of the Russian Missile Forces in the Ivanovo Region, located 155 miles [249 km] from Moscow. Combat patrolling with the RS-24 Yars strategic complexes is a crucial operational practice for the Russian Strategic Missile Forces [RVSN]. These patrols involve moving and deploying mobile missile launchers, equipped with intercontinental ballistic missiles [ICBMs], to ensure a high state of combat readiness at all times.
Preparing for war Putin is rapidly expanding the military President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered the regular size of the Russian army to be increased by 180,000 troops to 1.5 million active servicemen in a move that would make it the second largest in the world after China’s.
In a decree published on the Kremlin’s website, Putin ordered the overall size of the armed forces to be increased to 2.38 million people, of which he said 1.5 million should be active servicemen. Keep in mind this does not include para-military and Mercs. It is unclear if this includes reservists.
CONCLUSIONS
Russia and NATO are gaining significant combat experience in modern warfare tactics utilizing or witnessing the utilization of the latest technologically-advanced weaponry.
Apparently, Russia is de ja vuing WWII experience in urban warfare tactics.
As part of a greater strategy for lightning quick attack westward, Russia is willing to forego the urban locations with their front line troops and utilize their reservists, Mercs and para-military to fight in urban areas and later clean up in these back areas. Think of how the Germans conducted this strategy; especially in Eastern Europe in WWII.
Furthermore, with NATO deployment of Intermediate-Range and Long-Range Missiles from the Baltic region through Poland and down to the Ukraine, capable of nuclear and conventional configurations, the Russians will continue to initially deploy primarily reservists, Mercs and para-military troops with the expectation that the Russians are prepared to accept high casualties from such NATO attacks. One prerequisite for a surprise lightning attack by front-line troops on Western Europe would be when the stockpile of these missiles are depleted.
With the growing call by Russian military and political leaders, e.g. Professor Sergei Karaganov, for a modified nuclear deterrence which includes preemptive tactical nuclear strikes in NATO countries, anticipate that such strikes will occur in advance of a lightning quick invasion by Russian front-line troops. The West is over-relying on dated nuclear deterrence policies of the 90s. Russia is presently modifying its nuclear doctrine — lowering its inhibitions about the use of nuclear weapons in light of current developments associated with Ukraine. The Russians know that America/ Israel already used tactical nukes in Afghanistan (bunker busters), southern Damascus, Syria (November 1, 2017 key ammunition depot) and at the Lebanese port in Beirut (August 4, 2020 so-called grain silos in St. George Bay) to name a few. Plus, be advised that Russia is already collaborating with key actors/ allies, e.g. Iran, to augment their nuclear doctrine’s strategy/ tactics.
Russia is building up a huge infrastructure to quickly launch its front line troops westward in a surprising fashion and will focus heavily on targeting NATO depots and civilian resources for all sorts of supplies to sustain their drive westward.
Putin/ Russia has finally officially announced the “Red Line” is the use of long-range missiles by Ukraine. They informed the U.S., other NATO countries and the U.N. Security Council that a “State of War” exists if Ukraine uses these missiles. It is likely that Russia and China will initiate terrorist attacks and civil unrest in NATO countries — particularly the U.S., England, France and Italy (just as Catholic Prophecies predict). Be prepared for Russian “Actors) such as Iran to participate perhaps with the prophecies nuclear strike on New York City.
Catholic Prophecies remain likely. Russia is patiently waiting for the West to collapse economically, see uncivil war break out in multiple NATO countries and learning how to update its tactics to quickly seize advantage defeating America in Europe and instituting a new “Soviet” empire all the way to the Atlantic.
To get a detailed understanding of Russian Military strategies from an historical perspective check out this link:
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